"In 2016, the focus of the pharmaceutical economy will shift from quantity to price. According to the research data of the South Institute, the total output value of China\'s pharmaceutical industry is expected to reach 2884.2 billion yuan in 2015, an increase of 11.8%; In 2016, the total industrial output value will reach 3,210 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3%. By 2020, it will reach 4.84 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 11% to 13%. From the sales revenue growth situation, the sales revenue of the pharmaceutical industry in 2015 is expected to reach 2,662.1 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1%; In 2016, the sales revenue of the pharmaceutical industry will reach 2,904.4 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7%. By 2020, it will reach 4,386.6 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 10.4%."
On October 28, at the 26th National Pharmaceutical Economic Information Conference, Lin Jianning, director of the Southern Pharmaceutical Economic Research Institute of CFDA, predicted the current pharmaceutical economic situation in the keynote report entitled "Building a dream \'13th Five-Year Plan\' - \'13th Five-Year Plan\' pharmaceutical economic Outlook and forecast for 2016". Lin Jianning pointed out: "The growth rate of China\'s pharmaceutical economy is indeed slowing down, and the pressure is not small, but the long-term fundamentals have not changed, and it is still creating huge economic increment." In absolute terms, demand is still very strong." However, he stressed that the premise of maintaining high-speed growth during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period is that GDP growth in the next five years is not less than 6%, and exports do not have negative growth.
In the report, Lin Jianning believes that "in the next few years, the gradual shift from quantity to price will be a new bright spot in the development of the pharmaceutical economy." He reminded the industry to pay special attention to the development of such a new trend. In his view, "The pharmaceutical economy in 2016 mainly reflects six characteristics: first, the growth rate of the pharmaceutical economy will further decline; Second, the scrutiny of taxes will change the business landscape; Third, the control fee bidding limit resistance, hospital terminal situation is grim; Fourth, capital and market competition pressure increase retail concentration; Fifth, exports or continue to be depressed; Sixth, cost reductions and price adjustments are expected to stabilize the decline in profits."
Lin Jianning also made a summary of the operation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" pharmaceutical industry. It is reported that since entering the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the structural transformation of China\'s pharmaceutical industry has accelerated, and under the new normal of the economy, the overall growth rate of the pharmaceutical industry has slowed down, and the compound growth rate during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period is 16.6%. It is expected that the total output value of the pharmaceutical industry will increase by 11.8% in 2015. From the perspective of pharmaceutical industry sales revenue, China\'s pharmaceutical industry sales revenue maintained growth in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", but the growth rate slowed down, the compound growth rate during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period was 15.2%; In the first eight months of 2015, the year-on-year growth was 9.2%. From the perspective of pharmaceutical industry profits, the compound annual growth of profits during the "eleventh Five-Year Plan" period was 37.6%. After entering the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", affected by macroeconomic changes, drug price reform, cost and other factors, the profit growth of the pharmaceutical industry has slowed down, and it is expected that the annual profit growth of 2015 will be 11.9%.
Lin Jianning\'s research found that the current pharmaceutical industry total output value, product sales revenue, profit growth of the three growth curves are gradually converging. Against this backdrop, how do companies respond? Lin Jianning bluntly said that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the development of the pharmaceutical economy should not expect to restore the original ultra-high-speed growth, but the medium-high growth can still be expected. "We believe that the first two years of the 13th Five-Year Plan are relatively severe, and the next three years are expected to recover; I believe that the characteristics of the rising industry in the pharmaceutical industry will not change, after all, the public\'s demand for health is just demand." He suggested, "Recently, pharmaceutical companies pay attention to ensuring profit and cash flow is the key in 2016; In the long run, enterprises should take the initiative to transform and upgrade, and take the road of attaching importance to quality, management and innovation." He believed that when winter came, spring was no longer far away.
Information Source: Medical Economic News